Guest Opinion: Three horizons of growth in a challenging world|今热点

Despite a low-growth environment, or perhaps because of the sobering outlook, it is so crucial not to lose sight of avenues to relaunch growth and put us on a firm trajectory to new competitiveness and resilience. In this respect, I would like to point to three horizons of growth for short-, medium- and long-term revitalization of the global economy.

by Mirek Dusek

The world is currently mired in a low-growth environment, with the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts projecting global growth at 2.8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024 -- rates that are well below the average over the past decade.

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This is in the context of other ongoing fragilities including stubborn inflation, a global debt crisis, geo-economic rivalry, geopolitical conflict, and vulnerabilities in the financial sector.

Despite this sobering outlook, or perhaps because of it, it is so crucial not to lose sight of avenues to relaunch growth and put us on a firm trajectory to new competitiveness and resilience. In this respect, I would like to point to three horizons of growth for short-, medium- and long-term revitalization of the global economy.

REOPENED ASIAN ECONOMIES

Among the regions hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, Asia is emerging from a protracted period of muted economic activity and looks set to resume its role as the world"s growth engine. China"s reopening has provided a much-needed boost to both the regional and global economy.

The reopening of crucial Asian economies at large provides us with immediate growth markets which can spur growth in the short term and establish a base to overcome the low-growth environment moving forward.

In comparison with other regions, the Asia-Pacific is by far the brightest spot for economic growth, with the IMF"s latest estimates projecting the region to contribute 67.4 percent of all global growth in 2023, and with China alone contributing 34.9 percent of that total.

The annual growth rate for the region is projected at 4.6 percent for 2023, representing a significant increase from the 3.8 percent growth posted last year, and is especially strong as global growth projections are gloomy overall, due to an especially pronounced slowdown in advanced economies.

Of particular importance is the region"s manufacturing sector, which plays a crucial role in economic activities and, to ensure continued growth, it will have to adapt to the changing investment and consumption appetites affected by this period of transition.

NEW GENERATION OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP, INNOVATION

In spite of global economic fragilities, new ideas, approaches, and mindsets inherent to entrepreneurship and innovation can spur the momentum needed to create more equitable, sustainable, and resilient growth models. We should also remember that many successful companies were born out of adversity and at times of crisis.

It is thus important that even in the current challenging economic context, continuous funding has been flowing to digital and green industries, which are two essential components to successfully bringing innovation to market.

At a macroeconomic level, it is estimated that 70 percent of all new value created in the global economy over the next decade will be based on digitally enabled platforms and business models, while the rapid development and adoption of frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing, will have significant impacts across all sectors of the economy.

As an example, despite a slowdown in global venture capital funding overall, funding for companies engaged with AI has expanded significantly and represented about 13 percent of total new funding in May.

Trade in green goods, meanwhile, reached a record 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022 and will continue to drive growth and new jobs. Activities based on the green economy must continue to accelerate over the medium term as much work remains to be done.

According to the International Energy Agency, over 40 percent of the emissions that need to be cut to reach net zero between 2050 and 2070 must be addressed with technologies not currently being implemented at scale and are in the early adoption phase. This presents a significant opportunity for both business activity and public policy to be re-oriented towards sustainability, creating positive growth trajectories.

REWIRED COOPERATION

Over the longer term, the only way for the world to propel itself out of the low-growth environment is through cooperation. The global geopolitical environment is experiencing strong headwinds and demonstrating a tendency towards increased fragmentation and polarization.

Ultimately, however, the world needs effective and productive cooperation to allow for trade, investment, and the exchange of ideas to achieve and sustain growth.

The costs of rejecting cooperation are too high. A recent analysis by the IMF put the long-term costs of severe fragmentation at almost 7 percent of global output and highlighted disruption in trade, as that would potentially impact global living standards as severely as COVID-19. While we will certainly continue to have our differences, persisting with cooperation will secure our future.

All of these topics will be at the core of the agenda for the 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as the Summer Davos Forum, in north China"s Tianjin Municipality on June 27-29.

Editor"s note: Mirek Dusek is World Economic Forum Managing Director responsible for global programming.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Xinhua News Agency.

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